My study in the media

The main findings of my working paper on information and voting intentions during the campaign for the Scottish referendum have been picked up by several news outlets:

by davide Posted on September 15, 2014
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Why our findings seemed to predict what’s happening in Scotland

In May 2014, together with Céline Colombo we carried out an experiment on the Scottish independence referendum at BLUE Lab at the University of Edinburgh.

Assuming that the results of the experiment are representative of the trends in the electorate, they somewhat predicted the increase in the Yes votes which has recently happened. Since voters have become more informed about the issue of independence over the last few months, this increase of information has reduced indecision and has benefited especially the Yes camp, because independence carries more uncertainties and risks than keeping the status quo.

The idea is that reading convincing arguments has a stronger effect on the Yes side, because it contributes to reducing the uncertainties of independence to an ‘acceptable’ level, thus voting Yes becomes less a ‘leap of faith’ and a more considered choice.

A summary of the findings is available in the press release prepared by the University of Edinburgh, while the full paper is available here.

by davide Posted on September 15, 2014
Posted in -(meta) English, Political behaviour, Public opinion, Scottish referendum | Leave a comment

Perchè la Scozia non è il Veneto

Pubblicato sull’Huffington Post – 17 settembre 2014

C’è un argomento che colpisce particolarmente nel dibattito sull’indipendenza della Scozia. È l’idea che una volta separati dal Regno Unito gli Scozzesi possano creare una nazione più “giusta” e meno diseguale. Il partito nazionalista scozzese (SNP) e il responsabile della campagna per l’indipendenza “Yes Scotland” continuano da mesi a ripeterlo come un mantra: “Se trasferiamo poteri decisionali da Westminster alla Scozia – si legge nel White Paper pubblicato dall’SNP – possiamo ridurre la distanza fra ricchi e poveri. Possiamo creare un paese più prospero perché sappiamo che i paesi di successo sono più eguali e coesi”.

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by davide Posted on September 14, 2014
Posted in -(meta) Italiano, Scottish referendum | Leave a comment

Appendix – Why the results cannot be driven by stronger pro-independence arguments

The following table provides further clarification on why the results of our study cannot be driven by the fact that pro-independence arguments were more convincing than opposite arguements.

Results indicate:
1. A strong correlation between voting intentions and evaluation of the information material: those who intend to vote Yes consider pro-independence arguments more convincing than opposite arguments, and vice versa

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by davide Posted on September 8, 2014
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More information increases the chance of a Scottish yes vote

Published on EUDO Café – 29 August 2014

In less than two months the citizens of Scotland are going to decide on the future of their country in a clear-cut referendum. If Yes votes win the majority, Scotland will take the road for independence and might soon become the 29th member of the European Union. According to the polls on whatscotlandthinks.org, the No camp has steadily gathered more supporters. However, the gap between the two sides is fairly small, and reaching the crucial 50 percent still seems a feasible goal for the supporters of independence.

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by davide Posted on August 29, 2014
Posted in -(meta) English, Experimental designs, Media effects, Political behaviour | 1 Comment

A Europe-wide voting advice application

From November 2013 until May 2014 I took part in the development of euandi, the online Voting Advice Applicatin launched by the European University Institute in occasion of the European Parliament elections of 2014. I was co-leader of the Italian team, managing all the aspects related to the Italian parties running for the European elections.

eu and i fulfils all the functions any traditional VAA would offer its users: documentation of party positions and matching of a user’s positions with the political supply. Fundamentally new, however, is that the data generated enable like-minded citizens to connect and jointly act on a continent-wide level. This has never been attempted. Through social-media-linked applications, like Facebook and Twitter, they can transnationally connect with their peers. In doing so, euandi not only contributes to increasing the understanding of the European political landscape.

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by davide Posted on June 1, 2014
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An experiment on the Scottish independence referendum

At the end of April I’m going to Edinburgh to carry out an experiment as part of my PhD thesis. The study will be conducted at BLUE Lab at the University of Edinburgh and will focus on opinion formation in the context of the Scottish independence referendum. The aim is to test how and to what extent subjects change their opinions in response to an information stimulus. More details to come…

by davide Posted on April 15, 2014
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Quattrogatti.info premiato al festival di Mestre

Il nostro testo di presentazione per il Festival della politica di Mestre, dove siamo stati premiati fra i migliori blog politici italiani dell’anno.

Cinque anni, per il web, equivalgono a un’epoca storica. Soltanto cinque anni fa, in Italia, i social network erano di fatto ancora sconosciuti e il modo principale per condividere l’informazione restava sempre l’immancabile catena di email. Non era facile diventare “virali”, ma se facevi circolare il contenuto giusto – qualcosa che toccasse davvero un nervo scoperto della società – allora poteva capitare l’impensabile: una breve presentazione in Power Point che nel giro di tre settimane raggiunge 300mila persone, soltanto tramite catene di email, un rudimentale sito su Google e un upload su Youtube.

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by davide Posted on September 9, 2013
Posted in -(meta) Italiano, Journalism | Leave a comment

Fiat-Rcs: chi controlla il controllore?

Pubblicato sull’Huffington Post – 4 luglio, 2013

La notizia dell’aumento della quota di Fiat in Rcs segna un nuovo passaggio cruciale nelle vicende dell’editoria italiana. Oltre allo storico controllo dell’editrice La Stampa, il Lingotto si appresta ora a rafforzare la propria presenza all’interno di uno dei principali gruppi editoriali italiani.

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by davide Posted on July 4, 2013
Posted in -(meta) Italiano, Media pluralism | Leave a comment